Hydrological extremes in a changing world

Vortragende/r (Mitwirkende/r)
Nummer0000003010
Art
Umfang2 SWS
SemesterSommersemester 2023
UnterrichtsspracheEnglisch
Stellung in StudienplänenSiehe TUMonline
TermineSiehe TUMonline

Teilnahmekriterien

Lernziele

After participating in the module, studnets will be able to: • understand the meaning of hydrological extremes and a changing world in the context of hydrology • understand the interactions between the atmosphere and the land and how these affect the amount of water in rivers • understand hydrological models that describe a given catchment • to transfer a catchment related problem in to a model • to find model parameters that are related to changes in the environment in connection with their effects on the behavior of hydrological extremes • take part in the design of measures taken by communities to safeguard them against adverse effects of climate change

Beschreibung

The following contents will be covered in the module: • Introduction and theoretical background • Overview of hydrological modelling • Introduction to some basic meteorology • Hydrological modelling with parameter regionalization • Robust parameter estimation • Studying the IPCC future scenarios and their use in hydrology • Some ongoing situations of hydrological extremes • Time series analysis • Interpreting and evaluating model results Integrated exercises : • Time series analysis • The Python programming language • Lumped and distributed HBV • Land use maps and their use in parameter regionalization • Robust parameter estimation • Simulations with future scenarios • Proposing solutions to hypothetical scenarios

Inhaltliche Voraussetzungen

• BGU54006 Grundmodul hydrologie • BGU54008T2 Hydrological and Environmental River Basin Modelling • BGU54009 Flood Risk and Flood Management • Some experience with the Python programming language

Lehr- und Lernmethoden

The module consists of a lecture with integrated exercise. The notion of hydrological extremes and a changing world is clarified in presentations first. Various cases are shown from all over the world where undesired situations took place due to change in climate with or without human influence. The interaction of atmosphere with land and the drivers of extreme flows in rivers are described. Variables in nature that are responsible for large scale flooding are presented in detail. Cases where human-activity resulted in small scale floods (e.g., paved neighbourhoods) are also shown. The HBV model and its variants that make use of additional catchment data (e.g., landuse, geology) are introduced. Model parameters that relate to river flow directly and can be influenced by climate change are discussed. An overview is given for existing river discharge time series where a significant increase or decrease is visible. Various methods to detect/visualize change in time series are presented and discussed. The problem of data scarcity and its meaning for hydrological modelling is presented and discussed. Approaches that may be used to protect communities from the effects of high river flows are presented discussed and evaluated. In the computer laboratory, programming environments are setup where the students can implement and run the HBV model. Calibrations of models using land use are presented and are then run by the students as well. Using already calibrated models, the effects of future landuse change and increase or decrease of temperature and rainfall are evaluated. Remedies to bring flows to safe levels are discussed and presented that are then tested using existing setups.

Studien-, Prüfungsleistung

The exam consists of a project report that is submitted by a group of students (up to five, 80% of the grade, 50 pages) and its oral presentation (20% of the grade, individual group member evaluation, 60 minutes). The students demonstrate the ability to understand and model hydrological extremes and how they can be mitigated in. an ongoing or imminent problem in a certain part of the globe. They will analyze the problem and provide a solution using methods and tools that they learned in this course. In the project report, it should be possible to clearly identify the specific contribution of each group member. The final grade depends on how detailed their analysis and solution is and the quality of its presentation.

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