Risk assessment for airline flight operations

We are working towards an integral assessment of the reliability of airline flight operations. Due to the high safety-levels in civil aviation, many accident types cannot be observed in quantities that allow for sound statistical estimates based on observed data. Therefore, there is a need for a probabilistic framework, capable of incorporating many different sources of information. Among these sources are physically-based models (as typically encountered in structural reliability problems), observations from actual flights and results from human reliability studies (i.e. flight simulator studies). Within this project Bayesian networks are developed to provide such a framework.



  • German Federal Ministry of Education and Research - BMBF


  • Lufthansa AG
  • Institute of Ergonomics (TUM)
  • Institute of Flight System Dynamics (TUM)
  • Institut für Luft- und Raumfahrt Fachgebiet Flugführung und Luftverkehr (TU Berlin)
  • Chair of Mathematical Statistics (TUM)
  • Institute of Strategic Management (LMU)
  • BIBA - Bremer Institut für Produktion und Logistik GmbH (University of Bremen)
  • Information Design One AG


  • Zwirglmaier K., Straub D., Groth K. (2016) Capturing cognitive causal paths in human reliability analysis with Bayesian network models. Submitted to Reliability Engineering and System Safety
  • Zwirglmaier K., Straub, D. (2015) A discretization procedure for rare events in Bayesian networks. Submitted to Reliability Engineering and System Safety
  • Zwirglmaier K., Straub D. (2015). Discretization of Structural Reliability Problems: An Application to Runway Overrun. Proc. 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering ICASP 12, Vancouver, Canada.
  • Zwirglmaier K., Drees L., Holzapfel F., Straub D. (2014). Reliability analysis for runway overrun using subset simulation. Proc. European Safety and Reliability Conference ESREL 2014, Wrocław, Poland.