Past seminars


July 20

Ting-Ting Sun

(Tongji University)

Probabilistic response determination and dynamic reliability analysis for high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems via the physically-driven DR-PDEE
July 20

Prof. Rafael Holdorf Lopez    


A hierarchical Bayesian approach based on bridge weigh-in-motion data for structural model updating
July 5

Dr. Felix Schranner


Data-driven design of numerical methods for compressible flow simulation

June 7          

Dr. Iason Papaioannou

Bayesian post-processing of the moving particles method for rare event estimation

June 1

Prof. Kostas Papakonstantinou

(Penn State)

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes for optimal decision-making under uncertainty: Theoretical developments, applications, and future directions
May 17 Dr. Johann Spross
Probabilistic modelling of construction time in tunnel projects
May 7

Benedikt Schatz


Reliability analysis of slopes in Tailings Storage Facilities using a combination of the limit equilibrium and finite element methods
March 22                       

Prof. Kostas Papakonstantinou

(Penn State)                                       

The Scaled Spherical Simplex filter with n+2 sigma points for recursive Bayesian estimation and its connection to the Quadratic Point Estimate Method with 2n^2+1 points for uncertainty quantification
March 15

Georg Helling


Analysis of the influence of hydrological input scenarios on the benefit-cost ratio of flood polders
March 8

Prof. Kostas Papakonstantinou

(Penn State)

A discussion on Hamiltonian sampling and the inverse importance sampling process for reliability estimation

February 22

Zeyuan Zheng


Analysis of causes and prevention of failure for perception for autonomous racing vehicles

February 15

Max Ehre


Estimating rare event probabilities with Stein variational adaptive importance sampling

February 8

Beshoy Fawzy


Decision transformer for railway maintenance planning
February 7

Hassan Alnasser

(Applied Mathematical Statistics,TUM)                              

D-vine-based subset simulation for identifying risky flights in runway overruns
February 1 Dafydd Cotoarba
Stochastic modeling in geology and geotechnics


December 13

Dr. Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali

(Heriot-Watt   University)                               

Adaptive Sampling for Computing Probabilities and Risk Measures
November 8 Dr. Felipe Uribe
(Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology)
Prior models for edge-preserving Bayesian inversion
October 26

Prof. Yue Li

(Case Western Reserve University)

Risk-informed Assessment and Management for Infrastructure - from a Multi-hazard Perspective

October 19

Mara Ruf  


Flood risk assessment of the Bavarian Danube and evaluation of flood polder effectiveness

September 21

Max Ehre

A tutorial on Stein variational gradient descent

September 14 Jian Tan

A comparison of Gaussian processes and neural networks for active learning-based reliability analysis

July 28
Daniel Koutas
Reinforcement learning for inspection and maintenance planning: A comparison of neural networks and Monte Carlo tree search
July 20 Jianpeng Chan

MCMC in discrete spaces

July 13 Dr. Konstantinos Tatsis
(ETH Zürich)
Probabilistic learning of dynamical systems using sequential Bayesian inference
July 6 Max Teichgräber
Impossibility. What is it?
June 29 Nick Pfeiffer
Active learning of artificial neural networks for network reliability analysis
June 22 Ella Steins
(RWTH Aachen)
Quantile Estimation For Transpiration Cooling
June 15 Reza Allahvirdizadeh
(KTH Stockholm)
Improved dynamic design of high-speed railway bridges using reliability-based design optimization
June 1 Dr. Felix Schranner
Functional Safety development of an ADAS-System

Mai 25

Pablo Ramirez

Identification of Covariance Functions for the Material Properties of
Wood Using Experimental Data

Mai 25

Konstantin Althaus

Consensus based sampling for rare event estimation

April 27

Guanting Zeng

Bayesian inference of Gaussian mixture models with subset simulation

March 17, 4pm
Dr. Mayank Chadha
(University of California,
San Diego)
Decision-making under uncertainty in Structural Health Monitoring
(It’s still gambling, but with confidence)

March 9

Hugo Rosero
Selection of representative natural hazard scenarios for engineering
February 25
Mara Ruf
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a probabilistic flood polder model
at the Danube River
January 26
Antonios Kamariotis
Bayesian filtering for uncertainty quantification of structural deterioration

January 19

Dafydd Cotoarbă
Risk-Based Approach for Optimal Pre-Loading of a Road Embankment


December 1
Ivan Viveros
Modelling of extreme winds
November 24

Ji-Eun Byun

Reliability-based optimization using buffered failure probability
October 20

Haotian Jin

Computing decision-oriented reliability sensitivity with neural networks
October 20
Qiong Chen
Earthquake hazard analysis and cascading effects to the
power network system in Chile

October 6

Aidan Hughes
Risk-based active learning for structural health monitoring
July 7 Dafydd Cotoarba
Optimal Preloading for Embankment Construction under Uncertainty
June 29
Dana Khdairat
A hierarchical approach to Gaussian process regression with
application to engineering datasets
June 23

Prof. Matteo Pozzi
(Carnegie Mellon)

Price of optimism and pessimism in decision making

June 16 Antonis Kamariotis
Quantifying the value of vibration-based structural health monitoring
June 9 Dr. Alexander Mendler
(TUM - ZfP)
A reliability-based approach to determine the minimum diagnosable
damage for structural health monitoring
June 2 Dr. Iason Papaioannou
Elliptical slice sampler for subset simulation
May 12 Felix Schneider
A Sparse Bayesian Learning Approach for Rational Approximations
April 28 Severin Willibald

Implementation of flood hazard analysis under consideration of
uncertainty - Case study of the Danube River in Bavaria

April 21 Elizabeth Bismut
Gaussian Process regression in Matlab
April 7 Prof. Rafael Holdorf
Efficient optimization approaches for expected value functions
March 24
Barbara Carrera
(GSI Environmental)
Comparison of rotation-based MCMC algorithms in a Sequential Monte
Carlo application
March 17 Luca Sardi
Bayesian filtering for joint state-parameter estimation of structural
March 10 Minhao Qiu
Reliability design of multi-sensor systems of automated driving systems
February 23
Rafael Flock
Likelihood-informed dimension reduction for Bayesian updating
with the cross-entropy method
February 10 Jianpeng Chan
Improved cross entropy-based importance sampling for network
reliability assessment
February 3 Dr. Ji-Eun Byun
Matrix-based Bayesian network for probabilistic modelling of
large-scale systems
January 20

Marco Kryda

Associating sensor data and ground truth labels: An essential step
towards validating perception sensors in automated driving vehicles


December 16 Mara Ruf
Development of a stochastic model for the estimation of expected
damage due to dike failure
December 9 Wanchang Zhang
Estimating filtering distributions via a cross entropy based importance
sampling scheme
December 2

Fabian Wagner

Ensemble Kalman Filter for Rare Event Estimation    
November 25 Nina Korshunova
Influence of the microstructural variability on the mechanical behavior
of additive manufacturing products
November 18 Hugo Rosero
Selection of representative hazard scenarios for engineering systems    
November 11 S. Geyer (ERA)
M. Stupp (TUM)
Analytical Bayesian update of Gaussian random fields - theory and
application to material properties
October 28 Dr. Benjamin
(University of
Modeling and reliability assessment strategies for
railway bridges subjected to high-speed trains
October 21 Paul Wagner
(ETH Zürich)
Reliability analysis using stochastic spectral embedding    
October 7 Cathrin
Seismic and tsunami Hazard analysis and cascading
effects to the power network in Lima and Callao, Peru.
September 23 Spencer Sharp
Complex vehicle scenarios through structural
reliability methods and fitness functions
September 9 Max Ehre
Sequential, active learning of low-dimensional model
representations for reliability analysis
June 24 Michael Engel
Cross Entropy Based Importance Sampling for Bayesian Updating    
June 10 Leena Warmedinger
Debris flow risk analysis for Akhaldaba (Georgia)    
June 3 Antonis Kamariotis
(ERA group)
Optimal maintenance decisions supported by Structural
Health Monitoring
May 11

Marco Kryda
(ERA group)

Reliability Analysis of Perception Sensors in Autonomous Vehicles Using Fleet Based Data    
April 29 Jianpeng Chan
(ERA group)
An adaptive subset simulation algorithm for system reliability analysis with discontinuous limit states    
February 12 Prof. Mahesh Pandey
(University of Waterloo)
Stochastic Processes in Reliability Analysis: Applications to Degradation and Maintenance Problems    
February 5 Dr. Anneli Guthke
(University of Stuttgart)
A unified risk equation    
January 22 Prof. 

Xiaohui Tan
(Hefei University of Technology)

Reliability analysis of geotechnical engineering in unsaturated soil with spatial variability    
January 8 Dr. Oindrila Kanjilal
(ERA group)
Estimation of first passage probabilities for uncertain linear dynamical systems by importance sampling    


December 18 Max Teichgräber
(ERA group)
How the Daniels system can be utilized for semi-probabilistic design at system level    
December 11 Antonios Kamariotis
(ERA group)
Sequential Bayesian deterioration model and structural reliability updating using monitoring data    
November 27

Dominik Hesping

Construction and Evaluation of Machine Learning Methods for predicting a Multivariate Probability Distribution of Design Soil Parameters    
November 13 Prof. Daniel Straub & Dr. Karl Breitung Bias, variance and error of subset simulation    
November 6 Dr. Sinan Xiao
(University of Stuttgart)
Failure probability estimation with thermodynamic integration and parallel tempering    
November 5 Felipe Uribe
(ERA group)
Failure-informed cross-entropy-based importance sampling for rare event simulation    
October 1 Prof. Ji Lie
(Tonghi University)
Physical Stochastic System: A New View about Objective World    

July 31

Dr. Johan Spross
(KTH Stockholm)

Probabilistic design of embankments on vertical drains using the observational method

July 25

Prof. Eleni Chatzi
(ETH Zürich)

Infrastructure Monitoring: Sense-making from Data

July 15

Dr. Panagiotis Tsilifis
(EPFL Lausanne)

Bayesian Inversion and Surrogate modeling using Variational Inference


July 10

Dr. Emiliano Torre
(ETH Zürich)

Modeling complex dependencies with copulas in UQ problems: why and how

June 19

multiple presenters
(ERA group)

Presentations for the UNCECOMP conference

June 12

Dr. Johan Spross
(KTH Stockholm)

Risk management perspectives on geotechnical design


May 15

multiple presenters
(ERA group)

Presentations for the ICASP conference


May 8

Dr. Iason Papaioannou
(ERA group)

On the advanced line sampling method for reliability analysis


April 24

Sebastian Geyer
(ERA group)

Structural Reliability Methods: Different methods for different purposes


April 18

Prof. KK Phoon
(NUS Singapore)

Addressing the site challenge in transformation models

April 2

Dr. Oindrila Kanjila
(Indian Institute of Science,

Structural reliability estimation using Markov chain splitting and Girsanov's transformation based methods

March 13

Sai G. S. Pai
(EPFL Lausanne)

Accurate and efficient model-based data-interpretation to assist asset-management decision-making

February 6

Antonis Kamariotis

Mixed aleatory-epistemic uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis

January 30

Dr. Iason Papaioannou
(ERA group)

Global reliability sensitivity analysis and the FORM alpha factors

January 23

Christian Dörfler

Zuverlässigkeitsanalysen für Sensor-Systeme zur Anwendung von hochautomatisierten Fahrfunktionen

January 16

Jorge Mendoza
(NTNU Trondheim)

Integrated risk-based design approach for large infrastructures.

January 16

Elizabeth Bismut
(ERA group)

Learning. Validation. Verification

January 9

Sebastian Geyer
(ERA group)

Probabilistic modeling and the Eurocode: A look behind the Eurocode design and into the probability theory included in the code


December 19 Max Ehre
(ERA group)
Information reuse in multi-uncertainty reliability analysis
December 12 Prof. George Stefanou
(Aristotle University of
Stochastic finite elements based on mesoscale random fields of material properties
November 21 Prof. Luyi Li
(Northwestern Polytechnical
Research & life in Germany
November 14 Prof. Daniel Straub
(ERA group)
Decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis
November 12 Dr. Mauricio Monsalve
(CIGIDEN, Chile)
Reducing disaster risk through data driven research
October 24 Hugo Rosero
(ERA group)
From Natural Hazards to Lifeline Systems: An Overview on Uncertainties
July 4

Marco Daub
(Chair of Computational
Mechanics, TUM)

Max Ehre
(ERA group)

Martin Fusseder
(Chair of Structural Analysis,

Interval methods for systems design under polymorphic uncertainties


Reliability analysis in the presence of multi-uncertainty

The Method of Generalized Influence Functions

June 20 Sebastian Geyer
(ERA group)
High dimensions - How reliability methods with Gaussian models deal with the curse of dimensionality
June 13 Hugo Rosero
(ERA group)
Introduction to BERAN for analysis with Bayesian Networks
June 6 Mario Berk
(ERA group)
Machine Learning with Matlab
May 30 Dr. Iason Papaioannou
(ERA group)
Identifying structures in high dimensions: The Partial Least Square method
May 16 Max Teichgräber
(ERA group)
An attempt to define hidden safety and a parameter study on the effects of erasing hidden safety
May 2 Felipe Uribe
(ERA group)
BUS and the reversible jump MCMC
April 19 (Thursday 13:30) Dr. Gian Franco Napa García
(Instituto Tecnológico Vale
ITV, Brazil)
Towards a robust risk-based design of geotechnical structures
February 8 Felipe Uribe
(ERA group)
Estimation of the lower and upper bounds on the probability of failure using random sets and dependence modeling
January 24 Kilian Zwirglmaier
(ERA group)
Reliability analysis using hybrid Bayesian networks
January 17 Wolfgang Betz
(ERA group)
Monte Carlo simulation: A Bayesian perspective
January 10 Beatrice Dittes
(ERA group)
Long-term planning for flood protection infrastructure in an uncertain climate


December 20 Dr. Luyi Li
(Northwestern Polytechnical
Multivariate sensitivity analysis for dynamic models with both random and random process inputs
December 13 Mario Berk
(ERA group)
Inference of latent variable models: An application to sensor information reliability estimation without reference truth
November 29 Max Teichgräber
(ERA group)
The effect of traffic load model assumptions on the reliability of road bridges
November 15 Max Ehre
(ERA group)
Low-rank tensor approximations for reliability estimation
November 8 Sebastian Geyer
(ERA group)
Estimation of corrosion probabilities of reinforced concrete surfaces with spatial modeling and Bayesian updating
October 25 Elizabeth Bismut
(ERA group)
Reliability of deteriorating structures
October 13 Dr. Johan Spross
(KTH Royal Institute of
Toward a Reliability Framework for the Observational Method in Geotechnical Engineering
July 26 Alexandra Mitsi
(Munich Re)
Earthquake vulnerability assessment of a structure for insurance purposes
July 5 Lorenzo Colone
Improving offshore wind O&M: structural load analysis, reliability and machine monitoring
June 28

Elizabeth Bismut
(ERA group)

Adaptive inspection and maintenance planning in structural systems: application and benefits
May 31 Iason Papaioannou
(ERA group)
A flexible mixture model for cross entropy-based importance sampling
May 31 Max Ehre
(ERA group)
A continuous velocity process for mildly heterogeneous porous media
May 24 Mario Berk
(ERA group)
Bayesian reliability assessment of sensor systems– do we need a reference truth?
May 17 Sebastian Geyer
(ERA group)
Gaussian densities in the Cross-Entropy method for reliability
May 10 Dr. Hyunjoong Kim
(ERA group)
Vulnerability and risk assessment of ship structures via a Bayesian network model
May 8 Felipe Uribe
(ERA group)
Bayesian model inference of random fields represented with the Karhunen-Loève expansion
Feb 8 Kilian Zwirglmaier
(ERA group)
Software for continuous BNs
Feb 1 Anke Scherb
(ERA group)
Reliability and component importance in networks subject to spatially distributed hazards followed by cascading failures
Jan 25 Dr. Hyun-Joong Kim
(ERA group)
Risk models based on Bayesian network for ship inspection prioritization


Dec 15 Prof. Paolo Franchin
(Sapienza Università di Roma)
How modeling of interdependent civil infrastructure networks and buildings can be used towards resilience enhancement and emergency management
Dec 15 Prof. Mark Stewart
(University of Newcastle)
Risk and Decision-Making for Extreme Events: What Terrorism and Climate Change Have in Common?
Dec 14
Kilian Zwirglmaier
(ERA group)
PhD defense: Reliability analysis with Bayesian networks
Dec 7 Mario Berk
(ERA group)
Stochastic safety validation of automotive environment sensing: Empirical methods and Bayesian prediction
Nov 30 Dr. Shuihua Jiang
(ERA group)
Reliability updating of spatially variable slopes with multiple pieces of site-specific information
Nov 23 Felipe Uribe
(ERA group)
Effects of different prior random field assumptions in Bayesian inference
Nov 21 Prof. Mauricio Sanchez
Silva (Universidad de Los
Andes, Bogotá)
Modeling the complexities in design and operation of large infrastructure
Nov 16 Prof. Hermann Matthies
(TU Braunschweig)
Bayesian Updating on the Basis of Conditional Expectations
Nov 9 Elizabeth Bismut
(ERA group)
Optimal prioritization of inspections in structural systems considering component interactions and interdependence
Oct 26
Ji Yuan
(ERA group)
PhD defense: Time-dependent probabilistic assessment of rainfall-induced slope failure
Oct 19 Jonas Latz
(Chair of Numerical
Analysis, TUM)
Bayes Linear Methods for Inverse Problems
July 13 Dr. Hyunjoong Kim
(ERA group)
Quantifying the effect of inspections in ships considering the spatial variability of corrosion
July 6 Marcel Nowak
( Chair of Concrete Structures)
Statistical extrapolation for extreme traffic load effect estimation on bridges
June 29 Anke Scherb
(ERA group)
Spatially dependent failures in network reliability
June 15 Wolfgang Betz
(ERA group)
An efficient MCMC algorithm for Subset Simulation
June 8 Mario Berk
(ERA group)
Reliability Assessment of Automotive Environment-Sensing
June 1 ERA group
(ERA group)
ERA software tolos for reliability and risk assessment
May 11 Dr. Iason Papaioannou
(ERA group)
Reliability analysis with efficient sequential importance sampling
May 11 Prof. Daniel Straub
(ERA group)
Optimal inspection strategies in structural systems
May 11 Kilian Zwirglmaier
(ERA group)
Bayesian reliability analysis using OpenBUGS
May 4 Dr. Shuihua Jiang
(ERA group)
Bayesian updating of slope reliability with in-situ measurements considering non-stationary soil properties
Apr 27 AdaptRisk team
(ERA group)
Project presentation (at Oskar von Miller Forum)
Apr 13 Dr. Olga Spackova
(ERA group)
How to deal with climate change uncertainty in the planning of engineering systems?
Apr 13 Prof. Daniel Straub
(ERA group)
Quantifying the effect of early warning systems for mitigating risks from alpine hazards
Jan 27 Beatrice Dittes
(ERA group)
Jan 20 Wolfgang Betz
(ERA group)
Bayesian inference with Subset Simulation: strategies and improvements


Dec 9 Anke Scherb
(ERA group)
Comparison of network performance measures for network reliability assessment
Dec 3 (Thursday 13:15, room 0534) Prof. Jochen Köhler
(NTNU Trondheim)
Risk acceptance in theory and practice
Nov 25 Shuihua Jiang
(ERA group)
Bayesian analysis of slope failure considering spatial variability of soil properties
Nov 18 Dr. Qamar Mahboob
Combined handling of interfaces, functions and components related failures for system safety analysis: An experience from railway industry
Nov 11 Dr. Hyun-Joong Kim
(ERA group)
Risk assessment of ship collision
Oct 28 Dr. Nikil N. Pujari
(IIT Bombay)
Seismic Fragility Analysis of Containments considering Leakage through the Damaged Concrete
Oct 28 Jesus Luque
(ERA group)
Reliability-based optimal inspection planning of structural systems using dynamic Bayesian networks
Oct 21 Prof. Dr. Giulio Cottone
(ERA group)
A probabilistic framework for the optimization of composite laminates monitoring strategies
July 8 Jesus Luque, Dr. Olga
Spackova, Kilian Zwirglmaier
(ERA group)
Presentations held at the ICASP conference
July 1 Dr. Iason Papaioannou
(ERA group)
Sensitivity analysis with sequential importance sampling
June 24 Ji Yuan
(ERA group)
Reliability analysis of slopes considering post-failure movements
June 8, 10:00 Martina Sättele
(SLF Davos)
Quantifying the Reliability and Effectiveness of Early Warning Systems for Natural Hazards (PhD defense)
May 20 (TUM Institute of Advanced Studies) Prof. Daniel Straub
(ERA group)
Bayesian analysis of rare events (as part of a symposium held at the TUM IAS, Garching)
May 7, 18:30, Oskar von Miller Forum Prof. Henry Petrosky (Duke University) Success and Failure in Engineering
May 6 Beatrice Dittes
(ERA group)
Making adaptable decisions on flood protection infrastructure in the face of climate change uncertainty: A Bayesian framework
April 30 Prof. Natsugu Sato
(Chuo University, Japan)
Challenges in codes for actions on a wide variety of structures
April 27 Prof. Vaugham Griffiths
(Colorado School of Mines,
Numerical Analysis of Factors of Safety and Probabilities of Failure in Geotechnical Engineering
April 22 Anke Scherb
(ERA group)
Probabilistic risk assessment of infrastructure networks subjected to hurricanes
April 15 Prof. Daniel Straub
(ERA group)
The Role of Information in Risk Management of Engineering Systems
January 28 Kilian Zwirglmaier
(ERA group)
Human reliability analysis with IDHEAS
January 21 Ji Yuan
(ERA group)
Reliability analysis of infinite slope considering random extreme rainfall events
January 14 Dr. Karl Breitung
(ERA group)
How to get a point if you haven't one: HLRF and Confucius


December 17 Jesus Luque
(ERA group)
Modeling of fatigue deterioration in offshore platforms using Bayesian networks
December 10 Dr. Dimitris Giovanis
(National Technical University of
Using neural networks in the framework of stochastic structural mechanics
November 26 Wolfgang Betz
(ERA group)
Enhancements of the Transitional MCMC method for Bayesian updating
November 12 Panagiota Papakosta
(ERA group)
Wildfire risk prediction for houses and vegetated areas in the Mediterranean
November 5 Beatrice Dittes
(ERA group)
Climate factor based optimization of adaptive flood protection measures
August 14 Prof. Junho Song
(Seoul National University)
System Reliability Analysis for Lifeline Networks Subject to Natural Hazards
August 12 Prof. Junho Song
(Seoul National University)
Methods for Reliability Analysis of Complex Systems
June 27 Dr. Christoph Rheinberger
Toulouse School of Economics
Risk Equity and Catastrophe Aversion under Dependent Risk
June 24 Kilian Zwirglmaier
(ERA group)
Bayesian networks for airline flight operations
June 11 Beatrice Dittes
(ERA group)
Flood protection decision framework with quantified climate model uncertainty and measure adaptability
June 4 Panagiota Papakosta
(ERA Group)
Wildfire consequences modeled with Bayesian networks.
May 28 Dr. Karl Breitung
(ERA group)
Statistical inference with no data: why zero should not be equal to one.
May 14 Ronald Schneider (BAM)
& Johannes Fischer (ERA
A software prototype for assessing and updating the reliability of a deteriorating concrete bridge deck.
May 8 Ivan Depina
(NTNU Trondheim)
Reliability Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbine Foundations.
May 7 Prof. Frank-Michael Dittes Complexity and Critical Behaviour.
Apr 30 Jesus Luque
(ERA Group)
Inferring spatial dependence from inspections or how much your neighbors say about you
Apr 23 Prof. Daniel Straub
(ERA Group)
Value of information in risk and reliability analysis.
Feb 5 Kilian Zwirglmaier
(ERA Group)
Discretization for the treatment of reliability problems in Bayesian networks.
Jan 29 Wolfgang Betz
(ERA group)
Bayesian updating: formulating the Likelihood for problems with an unknown error structure.
Jan 22 Prof. Faidon-Stelios
(Continuum Mechanics TUM)
Optimization in the presence of uncertainty.
Jan 15 Dr. Olga Spackova
(ERA group)
Risk-based planning of natural hazard mitigation strategies: past, present and future.


Dec 18 TUM students Final presentations of MSc theses and study projects.
Dec 11 Dr. Iason Papaioannou
(ERA group)
Sequential importance sampling for structural reliability.
Nov 13 Ji Yuan
(ERA group)
Effect of Rainfall on the Reliability of an Infinite Slope.
Nov 6 Carles Camόs
(Universitat Politècnica de
Development of a probabilistic model for the prediction of building damage due to tunneling induced settlements.
Oct 30 Jesus Luque
(ERA group)
Algorithms for optimal risk-based planning of inspections using influence diagrams.
Oct 23 TUM students Final presentations of MSc theses and study projects.
July 24 Jan Podrouzek
(TU Vienna)
Importance sampling strategy for stochastic oscilatory processes.
July 17 Dr. Karl Breitung
(ERA group)
FORM/SORM revisited.
July 10 Ludwig Drees & Killian
(Institute of Flight System
Dynamics & ERA group)
Probabilistic modeling of top events in operational aviation risk assessment.
July 3 Prof. Nilanjan Saha
(Indian Institute of Technology,
Effect of sampling uncertainty analysis of spectra with respect to offshore wind turbines.
June 5
(14:00 to
ERA group Presentations to be held at ICOSSAR’13, Columbia Univ: A Bayesian Network approach to assessing wildfire vulnerability. Assessment of methods for the numerical solution of the Fredholm integral eigenvalue problem.
A fractional calculus framework for the statistics of nonlinear stochastic dynamic equations under stationary non-white excitation. How to select optimal mitigation strategies for natural hazards? Learning a Bayesian network model for predicting wildfire behavior. Probabilistic model of bone structure based on CT scan data and validation of simulation results using the finite cell method.
Reliability sensitivity analysis with Monte Carlo methods.
Spatial reliability analysis of a concrete bridge subject to corrosion conditional on monitoring results.
May 22 Axel Kasparek
(Environmental Engineering)
From Structural to Functional Similarity - Dynamic Identification of Hydrologically Similar Landscape Units in a Lower-Meso Scale Catchement.
May 22 Ronald Schneider
(BAM Berlin)
Updating of fatigue reliability with inspection data using subset simulation – problems encountered.
May 15 Jesus Luque
(ERA group)
Reliability analysis of bulk carriers using a spatio-temporal corrosion model.
May 15 Qamar Mahboob
(TU Dresden)
Bayesian Networks for Railway Risk and Reliability.
Apr 24 Jan Öster & Anke Scherb
(Environmental Engineering)
Canadian Fire Weather Index for the prediction of wildfire occurrences in South France: spatial-temporal data processing with GIS.
Apr 24 Stefan Giehl
(Environmental Engineering)
Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrologic and Hydraulic Modeling in Torrential Watersheds - Case Study Hirschbach.
Apr 17 Sebastian Botzler
(Environmental Engineering)
Implementation of an indicator based assessment method of wildfire consequences - Case Study: Cyprus.
Apr 17 Panagiota Papakosta (ERA
Probabilistic prediction of fire occurrence in the Mediterranean.
Apr 15 Rohit Ranjan (IIT Kanpur) A Two-Step Approach to Reliability Assessment of a Tunnel in Soft Soil.
Feb 13 Filippo Moretti
(Politecnico di Milano)
Probabilistic description of corrosion-fatigue and application on railway axle life.
Feb 6 Wolfgang Betz
(ERA group)
Uncertainties in Flood Forecasting Systems.
Jan 30 Dr. Utz Wever
Uncertainty Quantification from an Industrial Perspective.
Jan 23 Dr. Karl Breitung
(ERA group)
Double or Clump, Restart or Russian Roulette? Some Methods for Speeding up Simulations.
Jan 16 Martina Sättele
(SLF Davos)
Reliability analysis of a debris flow alarm system.
Jan 15 Dr. Elisabeth Ullmann
(University of Bath)
Multilevel Monte Carlo Methods.
Jan 9 Alessandra Altamura
(ERA group)
Reliability evaluation of structural components subjected to variable amplitude fatigue loading.


Dec 19 Ji Yuan
(ERA group)
Reliability analysis of an infinite slope.
Dec 12 Dr. Iason Papaioannou
(ERA group)
Reliability sensitivity analysis with Monte Carlo methods.
Dec 5 Dr. Olga Spackova
(ERA group)
Optimization of flood protection measures - a conceptual study and practical problems.
Nov 21 Christina Steinkohl
(Chair of Mathematical
Statistics, TUM)
Statistical modelling of extremes in space and time with application to radar rainfall measurements.
Nov 14 Dr. Giulio Cottone
(ERA group)
Reliability Oriented Optimization of Structural Replacement Strategies for Aircraft Structures.
Nov 7 Jesus Luque
Probabilistic modeling of corrosion in ship vessels using a hierarchical approach.
Oct 31 Killian Zwirglmaier
(Environmental Engineering)
A Bayesian network model for predicting wildfire behavior in Mediterranean regions.
Oct 24 Prof. Armen Der Kiureghian
(UC Berkeley)
Response spectrum analysis of floor acceleration.
Oct 17 Prof. Armen Der Kiureghian
(UC Berkeley)
Stochastic analysis of precipitates in a material grain.
July 18 Dr. Giluio Cottone
(ERA group)
Convolution quadrature and generalized fractional integro-differential operators in stochastic dynamics.
July 18
Remy Tochon
(Univ. Clermont-Ferrand)
Reliabiility of deteriorating bridges updated with visual inspections
July 5 Marian Heimann & Wolfgang
(ERA group)
Probabilistic interpolation of rainfall data in time and space
July 5
Kai Krug
(Environmental Engineering)
Measuring site vulnerability to wildfires – Assessment Method and Indicators
June 13 Prof. Daniel Straub
(ERA group)
Designing for wind actions based on time-domain analysis: Achieving reliability with limited simulation
June 6 Dr. Karl Breitung
(ERA group)
Interval Probabilities for Reliability: Panacea or Pipe Dream?
Mai 30 Alessandra Altamura
(ERA group & Politechnico di
Subset simulation for the reliability estimation of mechanical components subjected to fatigue using Forman-Mettu equation
Mai 16 Dr. Katerina Konakli
(DTU Lyngby, Copenhagen)
Stochastic dynamic analysis of bridges subjected to spatially varying ground motions
Mai 16
Florian Klein
(Environmental Engineering)
Combining a BN with a GIS for a wildfire occurrence model in Mediterranean areas
Mai 9 Prof. Dr. Kai Zoßeder
(Hydrogeology, TUM)
Tsunami Risk Assessment to support the Early Warning and Evacuation Planning at the South-West Coast of Indonesia
Mai 9
Jesus Luque
Probabilistic model of bone structure based on CT scan data
May 2 Katrin Runtemund
(Baumechanik, TUM)
Treatment of arbitrarily autocorrelated load functions in the scope of parameter identification
April 18 Dr. Matthew Lehar (General
Dr. Markus Zimmermann
(BMW Group)
A stochastic treatment of high-dimensional design problems.
Part 1: inexpensive estimate of failure probability for high-dimensional systems
Part 2: computing solution spaces for robust design
April 18
Kilian Zwirglmaier
(Environmental Engineering)
On MCMC sampling techniques for the subset simulation
Feb 8 Ji Yuan
(ERA Group)
Risk Assessment for Urban Shield Tunnel Excavation.
Feb 1 Wolfgang Betz
Finite cell based Karhunen-Loève expansion for random field discretization.
Jan 25 Dr. Giulio Cottone
(ERA Group)
Path integral methods by fractional moments for the solution of stochastic dynamic systems.
Jan 18 Olga Špačková
(ERA Group)
Statistical Analysis of Tunnel Excavation Performance Data .
Jan 11 Panagiota Papakosta
(ERA Group)
Dealing with Temporal and Spatial Data for Wildfire Risk Estimation: A Geodatabase Story.

prior to 2012

Dec 7, 2011: Ruiping Gao (NTU Singapore) & Iason Papaioannou (ERA Group)
Stochastic response of very large floating structures in random seas

Nov 23, 2011: Marian Heimann (Environmental Engineering)
Bayesian Integration of Radar Rainfall into Point Measurements

Nov 23, 2011: Sebastian Weckmann (Environmental Engineering)
Spatial Data in Environmental Health Risk Assessment

Nov 9, 2011: Dimitra Filippopoulou (COME)
Multimodal Pushover Analysis

Nov 2, 2011: Alessandra Altamura (Politechnico di Milano & ERA Group)
Reliability evaluation of tubular mechanical components containing flaws subjected to variable amplitudes loading

Oct 26, 2011: Prof. Dr. Daniel Straub (ERA Group)
Reliability Acceptance Criteria for Deteriorating Structures

July 27, 2011: Caroline Guggenberger (BSc Environmental Engineering)
Development of Criteria for Route Selection Regarding Safe CO2 Transmission in Pipeline Systems

July 27, 2011: Gautier Tribet (MSc Environmental Engineering)
Development and Implementation of Flood Risk Maps in the Context of the EU Directive 2007/60/EC

July 20, 2011: Johannes Fischer & Silvia Kessler (ERA Group & Center for Building Materials)
Spatial corrosion reliability conditional on multiple measurements

July 6, 2011: Dr. Chin Man Mok (AMEC Geomatrix, Oakland)
Applications of probabilistic methods in geo/hydro engineering

June 30, 2011: Dr. Chin Man Mok (AMEC Geomatrix, Oakland)
Applications of probabilistic methods in geo/hydro engineering

June 15, 2011: Dr. Andreas Joanni (Siemens, Munich)
Application of SORM to option pricing

June 8, 2011: Iason Papaioannou (ERA Group)
Stochastic hydroelastic analysis of very large floating structures

May 25, 2011: Daniel Frey (Chair of Remote Sensing Technology, TUM)
Damage assessment in remote sensing using probabilistic graphical models

May 18, 2011: Sebastian Neuefeind (BSc Environmental Engineering)
Regressionsanalyse als Mittel zur Vorhersage der Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeit von Großflächenbränden im Mediterranen Raum

May 18, 2011: Steve Schäfer (BSc Environmental Engineering)
Abschätzung des Einflusses von Wetterbedingungen auf das Auftreten von Waldbränden, unter der Verwendung des Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System

May 11, 2011: Prof. Dr. Daniel Straub (ERA Group)
Modelling dependence in seismic fragility

Feb 16, 2011: Gautier Tribet (MSc Environmental Engineering),
Assessing uncertainty in hydrological forecasting: Application to the Bavarian Danube catchment

Feb 9, 2011: Panagiota Papakosta (ERA group),
Not observable? Learning a Bayesian network for wildfires with hidden variables: The Expectation-Maximization Algorithm

Feb 2, 2011: Marian Heimann & Sebastian Weckmann (MSc Environmental Engineering)
Risk-based feasability study for use of marine energy in Brazil

Jan 26, 2011: Kai Osterminski (Center for Building Materials, TUM),
Full-probabilistic modelling of corrosion propagation

Jan 19, 2011: Simona Miraglia (ERA group),
How robust is my structural system? A case study on different timber roof systems

Jan 12, 2011: Iason Papaioannou (Chair of Computation in Engineering, TUM)
Embedded domain discretiztion of random fields

Dec 8, 2010: Olga Spackova (Czech Technical University, Prague)
Modelling tunnel excavation processes with Bayesian networks

Dec 1, 2010: Max Huber (University of Stuttgart)
Evaluation of spatial variability in geotechnical engineering: state of the art and perspectives

Nov 10, 2010: Dr. Giulio Cottone (University of Palermo & ERA group),
Fractional Differential Operators: a Brief Introduction with Application to Probability

Oct 27, 2010: Dr. Karl Breitung
Asymptotic reliability analysis and SORM : a First-Hand Account

Oct 20, 2010: Dr. David Delgado-Hernández (University of the State of México, UAEM)
Earth Dam Risk Assessment: A Case Study in Mexico

July 21, 2010: Christina Steinkohl (Chair of Mathematical Statistics, TUM),
Extreme Value Modelling of Wind Speed Data

July 7, 2010: Simona Miraglia (ERA group),
Risk-based assessment of timber roof structures

June 30, 2010: Panagiota Papakosta, (ERA group),
GIS-based wildfire risk analysis using Bayesian networks

June 23, 2010: Johannes Fischer (ERA group),
Reliability-based planning of inspections in RC structures

June 9, 2010: Olga Spackova (Czeck Technical University, Prague)
Risk Management of Tunnel Projects

June 2, 2010: Daniel Frey (Chair of Remote Sensing Technology, TUM)
Damage assessment system of infrastructural objects using multi-sensorial remote sensing techniques

May 26, 2010: Katrin Runtemund (Chair of Structural Mechanics, TUM),
Bayesian approach to the Kalman filter

May 12, 2010: Sylvia Kessler (Center for Building Materials, TUM),
Accuracy of potential mapping and updating of life cycle prediction for reinforced concrete structures

April 28, 2010: Prof. Daniel Straub (ERA group),
Dynamic Bayesian networks for stochastic modeling of deterioration processes

March 2, 2010: Qamar Mahboob (ERA group),
Review of methods for risk‐based safety analysis of railway systems