Development of an Operational Expert System for Flood Risk Management Considering Prediction Uncertainty

The aim of this project is to develop an efficient management tool for floods in meso-scale watersheds. The flood warning system should thereby be faster and more reliable.
The basis of the investigation is the analysis of the whole "flood chain": "forecast of rainfall events - rainfall-runoff-model - hydraulic model".

In contrast to conventional methods, the individual uncertainties of the different models and parameters are being quantified. The consideration of uncertainties time-dependent, as a short forecasting horizon increases the reliability of the forecast.
As a result, an adequate warning system can be established and the number of false alarms can be minimized.

Based on the results of the investigation a fuzzy-based expert system will be developed, which is operationally applicable and easy to use, so that an early warning of the population will be possible. Flood alert systems will be activated for each warning level, which is defined by specified threshold values. Furthermore it will be possible to assess the flood risk by analysing the likelihood of danger. Finally, damages will be able to be determined based on (dynamic) flood maps.


Supportet by Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung -  BMBF: Risikomanagement extremer Hochwasserereignisse ( RIMAX)  Projektträger Jülich (FKZ:0330699A)

Project partner and team: 

  • Prof. Dr. Markus Disse (Projektleitung), Universität der Bundeswehr München, Institut für Wasserwesen
  • Dr. Tibor Molnar, Ingenieurbüro für Umweltmanagement und Wasserwesen, Unterhaching
  • Prof. Dr. Gerd Schmitz, TU Dresden, Institut für Hydrologie und Meteorologie
  • Prof. Dr. Markus Casper, Universität Trier, Physische Geographie 
  • Prof. Dr. András Bárdossy und Prof. Dr. Silke Wieprecht, Universität Stuttgart, Institut für Wasserbau
  • Dr. Hartmut Sacher, Dr. Oliver Buchholz, Hydrotec Ingenieurgesellschaft für Wasser und Umwelt mbH, Aachen