Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management at the TU Munich

The water expert commission set up by the state government has submitted its final report to Bavaria's Environment Minister Thorsten Glauber. The core of the report are scientific evaluations and suggestions for the future water supply in Bavaria. 

The expert commission consists of the following eight members: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jörg Drewes, Prof. Dr. agr. Karl Auerswald, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Markus Disse, Prof. Dr. rer. silv. Annette Menzel, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Stephan Pauleit, Prof. Dr. sc. tech. Peter Rutschmann, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Theodor Strobl, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Silke Wieprecht.

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Tarim River basin is the largest endorheic river basin in China. Due to the extremely arid climate the water supply solely depends on water originating from the glacierised mountains with about 75% stemming from the transboundary Aksu River. The water demand is linked to anthropogenic (specifically agriculture) and natural ecosystems, both competing for water. Ongoing climate change significantly impacts the cryosphere. The mass balance of the glaciers in Aksu River basin was clearly negative since 1975. The discharge of the Aksu headwaters has been increasing over the last decades mainly due to the glacier contribution. The average glacier melt contribution to total runoff is 30–37% with an estimated glacier imbalance contribution of 8–16%. Modelling using future climate scenarios indicate a glacier area loss of at least 50% until 2100. River discharge will first increase concomitant with glacier shrinkage until about 2050, but likely decline thereafter. The irrigated area doubled in the Aksu region between the early 1990s and 2020, causing at least a doubling of water demand. The current water surplus is comparable to the glacial runoff. Hence, even if the water demand will not grow further in the future a significant water shortage can be expected with declining glacial runoff. However, with the further expansion of irrigated agriculture and related industries, the water demand is expected to even further increase. Both improved discharge projections and planning of efficient and sustainable water use are necessary for further socioeconomic development in the region along with the preservation of natural ecosystems.

This book discusses approaches to sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River located in Xinjiang (northwest China).

The Tarim Basin is one of the most arid regions in the world. Surrounded by the high mountain of Tian Shan, Kunlun and Pamir, the Taklamakan Desert dominates the landscape. The Tarim River originating from the snow and glacier melt in the mountains is the only relevant source of freshwater in this extreme environment – both for anthropogenic needs in agriculture Sustainable Management of River Oases and urban areas and the natural ecosystems of the Tarim River floodplains.

Since the 1960s, the Chinese government has been promoting the development of the western provinces of China. Demographic development and socio-economic changes led to a rapid change of land use, which has substantially affected the quantity and quality of arable land, surface and ground water and impaired natural ecosystems and their ability to provide relevant ecosystem services. In particular, presently there is a conflict between water demand for agricultural irrigation and natural riparian vegetation – a conflict that might intensify in future due to climate change.

Against this background, 11 German and 6 Chinese universities and research institutes have formed the SuMaRiO consortium (Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River) to investigate sustainable water- and land-management strategies for the region.

Here, the authors of the SuMaRiO project summarize the key results of 5 years of interdisciplinary research conducted by this consortium within the ‘Sustainable Land Management’ program of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. They present specific results from the different work packages on climatology, hydrology, ecology, agricultural sciences, social sciences and economics. Furthermore, this book introduces the interdisciplinary research approach of the entire consortium, which has resulted in comprehensive policy recommendations for sustainable water- and land management and a decision support system, which is based on the results of the study. The authors present an example of how interdisciplinary aspects and international cooperation are able to contribute to sustainable development in complex socio-ecological environments.